Decision Matrix: What Should the U.S. Do About Syrian Refugees?

Many models have been developed to help us make the best possible decisions. In political matters, one sometimes wonders if our leaders ever use any of them! Nevertheless, let’s have a look at a hot political matter as a case study to see how, if politicians were to use an optimal approach, their thinking might go. Our aim is to use a topical issue, one in which we all have a vested interest, so that we might see how the use of a decision matrix could serve us in our important decisions.

The model you should use depends upon the nature of the decision. Are you able to reduce the decision to a simple yes/no? If so, the most common approach is to simply list pros vs. cons, apply a method to weigh them against one another, and whichever side the scale tips, that’s the way you go. That’s great, but life is usually more complicated. It’s actually helpful to retain multiple options because it opens up the universe of potential action. So how might you effectively weigh five or more options against each other?

To illustrate, let’s look at the question of how best to help the people in Syria who have been displaced from their homes because of ongoing armed conflict between as many as a dozen distinct groups. The agitators are polarized to varying degrees between the Shia government of Assad and Sunni rebel groups (which includes ISIS trying to expand its nascent caliphate.) There are Kurdish groups involved in the fighting as well who are friendly to neither. The whole area is now a powder keg as Russian and Iranian interests align with Assad, American interests most closely align with the Kurds, and the Sunnis employ terrorist tactics as a part of an expansionist vision that ultimately affects all of western civilization. For the sake of brevity, we will have to paint with a rather broad brush.

With that qualification, there are basically five responses available to the United States. At the extremes, we could either open the floodgates to as many as we can possibly relocate to America or refuse to take any action on their behalf whatever. Between these poles are three basic possibilities – bring as many as we can as long as they do not show up on intelligence reports as active in extremist or jihadist efforts, apply a much higher standard and bring only those who can be positively shown to be non-participants in jihadist activities or groups, or bring none here but expend American resources and influence to find them suitable refuge in surrounding countries.

To determine which of those five options is best, we must analyze the expected costs and benefits. Again, this picture in reality is complicated, but for the sake of our discussion, we’ll condense them down to four considerations. First, how does our action benefit the refugees? Second, how does our action benefit Americans and their interests? Third, what are the costs involved? Finally, we must consider the risks of each particular course of action.

Considerations like these are often difficult to quantify in absolute terms. But we may agree to and assign relative values. While such an approach doesn’t yield absolute answers, the resulting analysis offers insight as to which action would yield the best net result. The following chart is one such possibility:

decision matrix syrian refugees 1

Of course I can’t be certain that my calculus is accurate considering that I am not privy to intelligence reports, international negotiations, or detailed cost analysis. This is however, my best shot as a thinking American citizen who pays attention to current events.

In light of the high burden, risks, and cost of bringing Syrians in large number to the American homeland, it may not be surprising that Options 4 and 5, those which avoid this action, are preferable. But it is rather close between Options 2 and 3, conditionally bringing some of the Syrians to America and Option 5, simply taking no action. This warrants a closer look.

When you use a decision matrix, you should recognize that not all considerations are equal. For instance, is it a responsibility or obligation of the American government to see to the welfare of non-Americans? To the degree that you believe it so, is this consideration equal to the Constitutionally-mandated task of securing the defense specifically for American citizens? No. We should help, but not to the degree that it hurts Americans.

Likewise, how do we really determine cost and risk? We have the short term logistical cost of screening and moving Syrians. Then we have long term costs because they are not all going to be able to support themselves in a new country where they do not speak the language and have little to none of the skills in demand in an advanced country. So that means there will be an ongoing financial and possibly social drain.

It is also unclear whether moving these people to America is best for them in the long term. Refugees are desperate and vulnerable. As they stabilize, they’re likely to desire a return to normalcy. Is it unreasonable to anticipate that this might be more difficult in a country far removed in both distance and in culture from their home? I assigned the highest relative value, 5, to helping the refugees by bringing as many as possible to America. It could easily be lower.

The risks are perhaps the most volatile and controversial portion of the issue. The Obama administration thus far seems to downplay this part of the decision matrix. President Obama himself chided the Republican Presidential hopefuls critical of his proposed actions saying that they seemed to be as afraid of Syrian women and children as they were of CNBC moderators. I haven’t heard any say so yet, but his opponents might point out that not two hours after the President’s snarky statement, a woman blew herself up in a suicide bombing in besieged Paris in an attempt to murder police. They might also ask the President where these women and children to whom he refers are in the light that 72% of the Syrian refugees are thus far fighting-age men. This is a suspicious anomaly.

Regardless of degree, it is not reasonable to discount completely risk factors, especially considering that jihadists have admitted that infiltration through refugee groups is one of their strategies. We could argue about whether 5% or .5% of the refugees pose a serious threat. The fact is that the more who come to America, the greater the risk that more terroristic attacks could result.

In order to incorporate the disparity between risk factors, we can apply a weighting scale. In the following chart, we simply acknowledge that risks and American interests are, say, twice as important as costs and the interests of Syrian refugees.

decision matrix syrian refugees 2

An interesting thing happens when you take this deeper look. Yes, Option 4 retains the preferred spot. But Option 3, the selection of relatively fewer refugees under stringent screening vaults into second place. In both analyses, Option 1 remains a distant last place and should be removed from consideration. (Unfortunately, this seems to be the path that the Obama Administration prefers. One might wonder how their considerations and weighting would differ from this one, and why.)

Whether you gain consensus in your organization through a formal decision matrix, the process is worthwhile. It encourages the team to find answers in murky areas. It helps focus discussion on facts rather than invective.  As a leader, you both teach your team to see how you reach your decisions and you also learn from them as they shed light in areas you did not previously consider. This habit is good for organizational health.

Veteran’s Day in D.C.


It looks like it’s bectom veterans day 2015oming a cherished tradition. For the second consecutive year, I was fortunate to go on a bus trip to D.C. for Veteran’s Day. It is an experience I recommend highly. The opportunity to meet and hear from the many Veterans of foreign wars who congregate at the battle memorials on the National Mall that day is profound.

I never served in the military. The instant connection and camaraderie shared between veterans tells me that it means a great deal to them to connect with another human being who truly knows what their experiences were like. It also means a lot to them when they see many people take a day out of their busy lives for the purpose of remembering and honoring their sacrifices and service. It’s the least we can do.

This year our group began the day at the Holocaust Museum. I worked for a professional a/v company in the D.C. area in the 1980’s we provided the equipment and installation for the many displays when it was first built. But I had never seen them. I had been to the concentration camp at Dachau on a high school trip to Germany. The year was 1977. Thirty two years after it had been liberated and the gas chambers and incinerators closed and destroyed, the place still had a tangible pall. It was as though you could feel the psychic trauma that had taken place there on an unfathomable scale. I have never experienced anything like it since. (That experience is now further away in time than the span between my visit and the camp’s operation. I wonder if that pall remains – I’ll have to visit again someday to see.)

According to the official positions of the governments of Iran and Syria, along with other organizations like Hamas, the Holocaust is a Zionist fabrication. Holocaust denial has long been a worldwide discussion – on American campuses and in publications around the globe. It’s understandable. I would rather this horror not have happened too.

But it did. And the true horror is not specific to Germans. Or Nazis. Or even Jews. It’s what this historical reality says about human nature. All of us, every single one, have the seeds of angelic good and demonic evil within. Evil is actually the path of least resistance. The German people, in the midst of fears of privation and even starvation in a crippled economy as well as residual anger about what they saw as vindictive treatment in the Treaty of Versailles in the wake of WWI, slipped down this path.

When people are fearful, they are vulnerable to their base urges. Stoking fear is the number one tool of the despot. We must remember that Hitler did not appear on the scene as a cruel mass murderer. In the eyes of some but not all of his countrymen, he represented hope and a means to return former greatness and glory. President von Hindenburg didn’t like Hitler. But he believed that he could control him when he appointed him Chancellor of Germany. As Hitler rose, his charisma won the hearts of many. Those who provided political opposition? Well, they typically didn’t live long enough to pose a threat. By the time his true aims were evident, it was too late to resist.

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

A concept such as Hitler’s Final Solution does not spring immediately into place. It is incrementally built over time. When you see the horrific images of what was done to fellow human beings, it’s jarring. The first instinct is to vilify the perpetrators. But the deeper, scarier, and more pertinent truth is that it can happen anywhere, anytime.

This brings us back to our American fighting forces. It is this force that liberated Europe three times. It is the sacrifice of our veterans that helps keep us off of the slippery path of tyranny. But they can’t do it alone. The fate of a people inexorably lies in their own hands. That’s why we must know the truth of human nature. That’s why we must remember that the price of freedom is eternal vigilance. As a Korean War vets rememberSouth Korean General said in an impassioned speech honoring and thanking the USA and its fighting men at the Korean War Memorial this Veteran’s Day, “we must always remember than freedom is not free.”

Benchmarking the POTUS (Part Two)

In this second installment of benchmarking the job of the President of the United States, we have assembled a group of stakeholders who directly interact with the President. The task for this group is to identify the most important key accountabilities, their priority ranking, and to specify how each will be measured.

Last week we suggested a crowded stakeholder panel of sixteen. As reader Steven mentioned, we could have rightly included others such as someone to represent the perspective of another country, perhaps a prominent world leader. But rather than expand the list, logistics require us to limit it further. So our panel today consists of the following participants:

  1. The POTUS (to represent the role itself) – Barack Obama
  2. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (to represent the military) – General Joseph Dunford
  3. Secretary of State (to represent the Cabinet and diplomatic interests) – John Kerry
  4. Attorney General (to represent the legal system) – Loretta Lynch
  5. White House Chief of Staff (to represent staff who directly report to the POTUS) – Denis McDonough
  6. A sitting Governor (to represent the States) – Nikki Haley, South Carolina
  7. The Prime Minister of Israel (to represent the interests of our allies) – Benjamin Netanyahu
  8. The president of the Chamber of Commerce (to represent commercial interests) – Tom Donohue
  9. Speaker of the House (to represent the Legislature, budgeting and the people) – Paul Ryan
  10. A specially selected ordinary citizen (to really represent the people) – You

There is tension in the room. Those who serve the current administration line up ideologically against the others. You can especially feel the chill between Netanyahu and Obama. I know I have my work cut out for me, so I take a deep breath and brief the panel with the following:

“You’ve been selected because you represent important perspectives with respect to the duties of the President of the United States. There is diversity of opinion represented here as well, so we will probably have to agree to disagree on more than one specific. What we need from each of you is your top one or two priorities that you see would describe success for a person serving as President of the United States. To be most useful, key accountabilities need to be top-of-mind memorable. The goal is not only for the person in the job to remember them, but also those who interact with the person so that they are best equipped to contribute to the person’s success. We’ve found that limiting the list of Key Accountabilities to 3-5 best accomplishes this. This means that some of the accountabilities for the role will be left out, maybe some very important ones. This is fine, because studies indicate that success is usually best achieved by keeping the main thing the main thing.  Pareto’s Law also tends to obtain here: the top 20% of your responsibilities yield 80% of the results.

Logistics have already required us to limit this process and will continue to do so. We will not be able to consider everything. For this reason, a benchmark, this one included, is not set in stone, but subject to continual revision as we discover more about what success looks like in a role and how the whole organization is best served.

So let’s start there. What precisely is our organization? Is it the government of the United States? The whole of the American people? The entire world?”

McDonough speaks first: “Of course the President serves the people, but he does so through the apparatus of the Executive branch of the federal government, which serves the people. To be most effective, the President must put the right people in positions to carry out his will, which was mandated via his election. He must then empower them to succeed.”

To the surprise of some, Netanyahu agrees: “You may think that I believe that as leader of the most powerful force in modern geopolitics, I would suggest that the American President serves all people. After all, America can and does make such a difference for people suffering in all places. But you would be wrong. A leader must serve his people. It is a special and unique circumstance that as the leader of the American people, it appears to some as though the President serves all people. This is only true because of the universal truth and high aspiration codified in your Constitution. But also in the minds of the authors of that profound document was the wisdom to recognize the folly of becoming entangled in the affairs of others. The people of Israel appreciate the support of the American people. But we do not look to your President to represent us.”

I ask: “So is it true that the healthier and more successful the government, the healthier and more successful the people?”

The room is divided on this question. After a long discussion, we settle with the recognition that the government is a tool, a means, and that the health of the people is the paramount determiner of success. “How do we measure the health of the people?” I ask, knowing that this will likely stoke a second debate.

It does, and it takes the better part of an hour. At the end, we are able so summarize, saying the people are healthy when there is:

  • Justice – people are treated fairly in a system that is blind to race, creed, status, etc.
  • Prosperity – people can pursue their potential and earn a living that meets standards
  • Safety – that it is reasonable to feel safe from attack from criminals or foreign invaders
  • Peace – no wars, no domestic violence

“Are these some of the Key Accountabilities for the President?” I ask, as I write them on the white board.

“This list is nice, I like the intention. But it doesn’t really describe what must be done on a day-to-day basis,” Obama suggests. “I spend most days listening to people on one hand and on the other doing my best to persuade people. When that doesn’t work, you just have to do what you believe and then be willing to take the heat from those folks who see things differently.”

“Above all, to be effective a President must be able to communicate his priorities, decisions, along with pertinent information to all of the vested groups.,” Donohue says.

“This includes working hand-in-hand with the people’s representatives in Congress,” says Ryan with a degree of irritation.

“Let’s keep this as non-partisan as we can,” I caution. “But we will capture this as a potential consideration.”

Panelists offer their priorities and we end up with the following list:

  • Effective public speaking
  • Builds coalitions
  • Works with Congress to codify needed policy changes
  • Proper preparation and deployment of armed forces
  • Champions the causes of the disenfranchised
  • Recognizes and recruits talent
  • Appoints supreme court justices and other influential officials
  • Effectively delegates to and empowers personnel
  • Meet with foreign dignitaries and negotiates favorable treaties
  • Empathetic listener
  • Understands macroeconomics
  • Faithfully executes the laws of the land
  • Understands governmental structures, functions and standards
  • Strong vision, futuristic thinking

Many of the heads nod as we review the list. But you have questions, and offer: “Doesn’t it matter what the vision for the future is?”

Now you’ve done it. The room erupts and things devolve along a partisan line. Netanyahu, Ryan, Haley, and Donohue argue that the President should reduce the influence and reach of the Federal government, while the others argue that agencies should be improved and empowered. I realize we are not going to reach consensus on this, since we have struck fundamental philosophical differences. On one side, the feeling is that the people make their own way. On the other, the feeling is that people won’t be able to do that and require the help of a strong Federal system.

I suggest a break after which we will winnow and rank the named priorities. We reconvene with cooler heads, and the discussion proceeds in a productive direction. Dunford and Lynch, along with Donohue and Ryan, like the list of four as much as they do the list of fourteen, feeling that this is a much better definition of success. The others don’t see how you can directly connect the job of the POTUS to these macro end results, and favor continuing to focus on things that one person can reasonably control.

I share my view: “Both sides have valid points. Let’s look at both lists together and generate the top four. What is the one thing that rises above all others, the one thing that the President must accomplish in order to be successful?”

After much more discussion, the group is split, but agrees that the top three must include Justice, Prosperity, and Safety. The order is not agreed upon, because there is disagreement about which condition precedes another.

You’ve been quiet throughout this discussion. So I turn to you and ask: “What would you say – of these three, which precedes the other?” (I look forward to your response.)

“Okay,” I continue. “What does the President do or not do in order to result in Safety, Justice, and Prosperity?”

After another lengthy discussion, a theme emerges. The President must a) respect the laws, and b) communicate effectively. I prod to reach specifics: “How do you measure respect for laws?”

Haley makes a comment under her breath, something about a pen and a phone. Normally, I would seek to uncover the feeling behind a remark such as this, but we’ve had enough contention and I knew that it would not move us forward. So I let it go. The discussion goes on, but does not lead to a clear, usable result.

“How do you measure effective communication?” I prod.

I hear various answers offered: poll results, regular press conferences, “fireside” chats, and a clear, easily navigated web-based resource that explains issues in detail. Ultimately, the feeling is that this is difficult to measure too. At this point, there is a feeling of frustration in the room, one I share. I feel that the panel is growing weary, and is not likely to push through to a robust result. I knew this was going to be a difficult process, but for the first time I began to wonder if a reasonable benchmark simply cannot be reached.

Just as I’m about to float the idea of reconvening at another time, you take the dry erase marker from my hand. You go to the white board, and write the following four Key Accountabilities:

1)

2)

3)

4)

(Please send me your answers.)

Benchmarking the POTUS (Part One)

In my work with clients we commonly create job benchmarks.  A job benchmark is a tool that is used to concisely measure and prioritize the key accountabilities for a position in order to define success in terms that best contribute to organizational health. Once these are determined, a natural extension is to use psychometric tools to identify and quantify the behaviors, drivers, and competencies necessary in fulfilling the critical tasks in that position. This knowledge favorably disposes us to optimally match a person to the role and, just as importantly, create conditions that lead to success and best provide ongoing development.

This practice is an integral part of a comprehensive People Strategy and improves the attraction, selection, development, and retention of talent and thereby performance. The approach is so powerful that I assert that every important position in every organization should be benchmarked. Too bad we can’t do this for one of the most important jobs of all – President of the United States.

Or can we?

If we could, it would be a big job, because the position of POTUS includes lots of responsibility and numerous and often conflicting constituencies. But hey, fortune favors the bold. So let’s give it a shot.

I should first qualify this thought experiment. Elections are, ideally, supposed to fulfill some of these functions. Candidates explain their priorities, what they propose to do about them, and why their personal attributes mean that potential voters can be confident that they will execute successfully. The problem we have is that the Machine (comprised of vested interests – current public sector structures, media, the two major Parties, and their deep-pocketed constituents) obfuscates. The Machine’s criterion for a successful President is limited to “someone who will help expand our power.” This leads to the purposeful avoidance and misrepresentation both of what success looks like as well as what is true about candidates. This undermines our ability to discern.

For that reason, we will have to make some assumptions. This is not ideal because if you miss on an assumption you miss on your conclusion. This limits our ability to be precise or even scientific. But the experiment should nevertheless give us a more in depth and robust analysis than is typical in our current political discourse.

This week we’ll cover the benchmarking process. Next time we’ll define the key accountabilities for the POTUS and how they might be measured. The final installment will focus on personal attributes and how those might be applied to the current crew of Presidential hopefuls. The aspiration is that this exercise yields useful and perhaps unique insights.

When benchmarking a role, you begin by defining how the role serves the greater organization. Often you start by analyzing an existing job description. In the case of the POTUS, we need to begin with the U.S. Constitution.

The office is established and circumscribed in Article II. In Section 1, the office is described: “The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.” The text goes on to stipulate the terms of service (four years), manner in  which the President will be elected, and requirements of eligibility: “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”

This is a broad requirement. Today, as many as 150 million people may be considered for the job. There is no mention of qualifications such as educational degrees or professional backgrounds. The Founders do, however, give us some insights about the highest priority for the POTUS at the end of Section 1 in the description of the Oath of Office: “I do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

Clearly the Founders were invested in creating a government of laws, not of personages. They did not include a limit on number of terms; this was not added to the Constitution until the 22nd Amendment limited the number of terms to two in 1951 after FDR served four presidential terms. It should also be noted here that the Constitution, as a whole, was created as a document of “negative powers.” This means that if an established authority is not specifically empowered in the document, rights and powers remain with the States and with the People. This aspect of our Constitution has been repeatedly contested over the past 100 years, as those who want more leeway in executing Federal authority seek to expand their basis. This dynamic will become important later as we prioritize key accountabilities.

In Section 2, the Founders flesh out the duties of the Office of the President of the United States. Therein the President is established as Commander in Chief of military forces and in charge of executive agencies. The President is also given the ability to grant Pardons, except in cases of Impeachment. The ability to make Treaties is handled as follows: “He shall have the Power, by and with the Advice of Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur…” The President is empowered, also “with the advice and consent of the Senate,” to place individuals in positions of influence and power. These include “Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for…”

Section 3 calls for the President to give an annual State of the Union report to the Congress. Today, this is conducted in person. It does not have to be and historically was not. Section 3 also gives guidelines wherein the President can call and keep the Congress in session as well as adjourn them in times of dispute. The President is also empowered to conduct diplomacy by not only appointing Ambassadors, but receiving foreign emissaries.

And that’s about it. The rest of the expectations about the role of POTUS have been built over time but in the main are conventions and traditions, not mandates.

In order to identify, quantify, and prioritize key accountabilities, we typically assemble the stakeholders who interact with the person in the role and whom that person serves. In the case of the POTUS, we might include representatives of the whole of the people, most likely to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives as well as House and Senate Majority and Minority leaders. We could consider the Governors of the fifty states. Since the President is given responsibility over the various departments of the Executive Branch, representatives from each could be considered. Today the number of such Departments is 645. A central duty for the President is acting as the civilian Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. So it would seem wise to include the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the process as well.

Constituents outside of the government also merit consideration. Representatives from media, industry, financial, legal, and medical sectors, and any number of special interests would thereby deserve to be included. We could conceivably fill a large hall and not have everyone properly represented.

If we were to do that, the process of gaining agreement about the priority of key accountabilities and their measurements would be unending. In almost all benchmark processes, logistics require us to impose limitations. Typically, the discussion flows best if there are 6-9 participants. So we’ll have to cherry pick.

Let’s say we pick the Chairperson of the Joint Chiefs, the Speaker of the House, the Senate Minority and Majority leaders, the Attorney General, and Secretaries of State, Defense, and Treasury. We could possibly include one or two more that represent areas of critical need today. So let’s include the head of Homeland Security, the White House Press Secretary, and the Chief of Staff. The problem with this list, other than it leaves many federal and State functions unrepresented, is that it also under-represents private sector constituents. So let’s at least invite the CEO of a major corporation along with the President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. It would be nice to have at least one sitting Governor too so that the States aren’t left out.

It also makes sense, when possible, to include people who have served in the role in the past. So we might include a past President in our group.

I don’t feel great about this list, as too many important perspectives are missing. The President should serve all of the people, not just important constituent groups. So let’s include you in the meeting as a representative of “ordinary” Americans. That gives us a group of sixteen. It’s a large group, double the optimal size, so everyone will have to be respectful and concise.

Now that we have our stakeholders, we’ll conduct an imaginary discussion about the key accountabilities of the POTUS from their perspectives. Each participant should think about how the POTUS adds value to the country as a whole and to their interests in particular in preparation for the discussion.

We’ll conduct this discussion in next week’s article. In the meantime, I’d like to invite you to personally participate in this process. What do you think the top one or two priorities for the POTUS should be? What tangible, measurable evidence indicates that the POTUS is successful in meeting that responsibility? Try to look at these two questions from the perspectives of some of the other personages in the list of stakeholders. How might their answers differ from yours? If you can, please forward your responses to me over the next few days. I will look to include them in the “discussion” next time.

Benchmarking the POTUS (Part Three)

I appreciate the responses I received from Part Two of this series. Space prevents us from exploring them all here. Here is what we together have come up with as a list of the Key Accountabilities for the POTUS:

  • Faithfully executes the laws of the land
  • Defends the American People from physical and economic threats
  • Shares a cohesive leadership vision with Congress and the American People
  • Empowers appointees to assure their success

The next task for the stakeholders is to determine the measurements for these four Key Accountabilities. “What is the tangible evidence that the President faithfully executes the laws of the land?” I ask our assembled stakeholders.

“With all due respect to President Obama,” says Speaker Ryan, “It would mean that you can’t select which laws to prosecute and which ones to ignore. As an example of a breakdown of this faith, I suggest the failure of this administration to enforce our immigration laws.”

President Obama cannot let this go: “There is no way to prosecute, much less deport, the millions of undocumented people living in America today. The problem is one of acceptance and tolerance, not the letter of laws that were passed by folks who could not have foreseen the current problems. This is why I’ve been after you in Congress for some sensible legislation.”

I try to head another argument off at the pass. “This highlights one of the major problems we have in evaluating the performance of the POTUS. In a system as complex and incongruous as ours has become success in the eyes of some looks like failure in the eyes of others. What, if anything, are the universal elements of these accountabilities – the parts over which there would be no controversy?”

“It seems to me that this is a matter of character and of principle,” says Governor Haley. “It is a question of trustworthiness. So I would measure this by how consistently the person does what they say they will do.”

“This can be difficult in the midst of the realities of global politics. The winds blow one way, and the next day they can change direction,” says Secretary Kerry.

“Reactions such as force deployments may change, but the leadership vision should be constant,” says General Dunford.

“The issue of character and trustworthiness seems to me to apply to all of the Key Accountabilities,” says Attorney General Lynch. “Let me ask you this, Mr. Dardick. How do you measure character?”

It’s a simple question. But it is not an easy one to answer, especially when you’re interviewing someone for a job. We have to specify pertinent traits. Then, we need to accurately evaluate those qualities, without the benefit of working with them over a longer term – how they behave, what they value, what drives them, how they look at the world, and by extension, what their capacities are. We need some agreed upon scale and a proven instrument that provides predictive value. Some psychometric tools give us these kinds of insights. But their use in the workplace, especially in response to matters of “character,” is tricky, and must be properly handled. They must be used in the context of many other considerations.

So I respond: “We tackle this question in the next step of our benchmarking process, which is how we match a person to the role. The election process reveals the character of presidential hopefuls, as does the person’s record. But for those for whom we don’t have this information, and to minimize bias, it’s best to use validated psychometric instruments to accomplish two important objectives. First, to identify the attributes needed for success in the role. Second, to find candidates who closely match our specifications. The match won’t be exact, so once we select a person, we use their personal psychometric profile to optimize the role for them and to develop the competencies most critical for performance in their role.”

Rather than spend our remaining time developing the specific measurements for the current Key Accountabilities, we decide to dive into this phase. I’m good with this. I’ve already made a mental note that some kind of special review panel, one that does not yet exist, would need to be created to continually evaluate and provide feedback in the effort to provide meaningful measurements. They would likely use surveys and other key indicators to correlate the desired outcomes identified in the Key Accountabilities with the decisions and actions of the President.

We spend the next 90 minutes responding to the questions in the instrument that I selected, always keeping in mind that we are answering for the role, not a person. This process spurs some discussion, but thankfully it lacks the polarization of earlier exchanges. I’m feeling good that the team is finally coming together to collectively determine the best answers.

Once we’re done with this phase, I thank all of the participants for their valuable contributions and adjourn the panel. I will now go back and compile the results into a formalized benchmark. The final version is typically used to attract, select, develop, and retain the best talent for critical roles. Once someone is hired (elected, in this case), we often produce a gap report to highlight the differences between their personal attributes and those of the role itself. I typically use three or four technologies to get as accurate a look as possible. For the purposes of this article, I’m going to zero in on just one of those.

Originally developed in the 1950’s through the early 1970’s by Dr. Robert Hartman, it is a profile that utilizes the science of axiology to describe the way that a person develops their judgment of what is good or bad in very specific way. The instrument isn’t a true judge of character or ethics, but it does reveal an uncanny amount of information about how a person views the world and their place in it. The research of Dr. Bill Bonstetter and his scientific team, conducted over the past twenty years or so, has clarified and distilled the results of this instrument in order to link it to performance in the workplace. Their version yields outputs measured in 25 competencies, as follows:

  1. Conceptual Thinking
  2. Conflict Management
  3. Continuous Learning
  4. Creativity
  5. Customer Focus
  6. Decision Making
  7. Diplomacy & Tact
  8. Empathy
  9. Employee Development/Coaching
  10. Flexibility
  11. Futuristic Thinking
  12. Goal Achievement
  13. Interpersonal Skills
  14. Leadership
  15. Negotiation
  16. Personal Accountability
  17. Persuasion
  18. Planning & Organizing
  19. Presenting
  20. Problem Solving Ability
  21. Resiliency
  22. Self-Management
  23. Teamwork
  24. Understanding & Evaluating Others
  25. Written Communication

The responses we gave in the stakeholders meeting would have derived a chart that ranks these in order from most important, to important, to somewhat important, to not important. When completing this survey, it’s tempting to just say that they all matter, because you can make a case that this is true. The problem is that you will never find human beings for whom all competencies are rated highly. The reason for this is that there are tradeoffs between these competencies. Highly functioning people can be relatively stronger on most if not all of the competencies than others, but there will always be a range of relative personal strengths and weaknesses. So I moderated the discussion to make sure that we achieved an adequate differential.

Our Benchmark for the POTUS revealed these as the top five competencies. (I’d like your opinion if you think the list should be different.)

  1. Leadership
  2. Decision Making
  3. Resiliency
  4. Presenting
  5. Diplomacy & Tact

When matching candidates for a role, it’s helpful to not only look at the top competencies, but also the bottom ones. If a person is strong in an area, they will tend to use that strength, even if the job doesn’t call for it. So it’s wise to avoid hiring people who are strong in areas that are not needed in their role. Here are the bottom five competencies for the POTUS:

  • Conflict Management
  • Problem Solving Ability
  • Employee Development/Coaching
  • Written Communication
  • Creativity

The next part of our thought experiment is to compare candidates to these established parameters. For the sake of brevity, we’ll look at only the six candidates who are currently polling in double digits. To do this correctly, we would give each of them the instrument to complete online and then compare the results, the selection panel being blind to which candidate has which results. This further reduces bias. In this case, I’m going to have to use my imagination based upon the impressions I get from their campaigns along with their professional track records to project the results. We’ll take them one at a time:

Donald Trump:

Top Five: Decision Making, Futuristic Thinking, Goal Achievement, Negotiation, Resiliency.

Bottom Five: Conceptual Thinking, Diplomacy & Tact, Flexibility, Presenting, Teamwork

Dr. Ben Carson:

Top Five: Conceptual Thinking, Continuous Learning, Empathy, Diplomacy & Tact, Presenting.

Bottom Five: Conflict Management, Negotiation, Persuasion, Understanding & Evaluating Others, Customer Focus.

Senator Ted Cruz:

Top Five: Conceptual Thinking, Resiliency, Futuristic Thinking, Presenting, Personal Accountability.

Bottom Five: Conflict Management, Flexibility, Understanding & Evaluating Others, Teamwork, Diplomacy & Tact.

Senator Marco Rubio:

Top Five: Presenting, Interpersonal Skills, Persuasion, Resiliency, Conflict Management.

Bottom Five: Creativity, Employee Development & Coaching, Flexibility, Planning & Organizing, Self-Management.

Secretary Hillary Clinton:

Top Five: Futuristic Thinking, Goal Achievement, Planning & Organizing, Resiliency, Teamwork.

Bottom Five: Decision Making, Personal Accountability, Leadership, Empathy, Conflict Management.

Senator Bernie Sanders:

Top Five: Customer Focus, Futuristic Thinking, Leadership, Resiliency, Self-Management.

Bottom Five: Decision Making, Diplomacy & Tact, Flexibility, Teamwork, Goal Achievement.

You may not agree with my assessments. I’m certain that if the candidates were to complete the instrument, we would be surprised by much of the results. That is why these instruments are so valuable – they help us see past our personal biases.

If you’re so inclined, have a look at the lists above. Try to compare each set of personal competencies for the candidates with the POTUS benchmark. You should look at the competencies, yes, but also the Key Accountabilities. What do you believe about each candidate that would serve that person well in each of these areas? What do see that could be a potential shortcoming?

Here’s one way to look at the results. For every competency that matches either the top or bottom five, give a point. For every top competency for a candidate that appears in the bottom five for the position, and vice versa, subtract a point. Evaluating my results, Dr. Carson comes out on top with a score of 3, followed by Ted Cruz at 2, then Marco Rubio at 1. Trump, Clinton, and Sanders are all tied for fourth at 0.

If you view the upcoming debates and election coverage through this lens, you may pick up on things that would otherwise escape your notice. If this turns out to be the case, then these three weeks of work of benchmarking the POTUS will have been worth it.

America the Beautiful (Ugly)

America the Beautiful Ugly

Judging by my Facebook feed, we should not continue to celebrate Columbus Day. Judging by the sentiment at the 20th anniversary of the Nation of Islam’s Million Man March ominously entitled Justice or Else!, we should not be celebrating July 4th, or really America-as-founded in any significant way. Judging by the logic of the political left as was on display at the first 2016 Democrat Party presidential debate, America has never been America the Beautiful. It is and always has been America the Ugly – racist, unjust, selfish, a scourge to the rest of the world – in dire need of continued fundamental transformation.

America has been taking it on the chin for most of my life. I suppose it began in earnest in the late 50’s and early 60’s with the counter-culture movement, later signified in anti-Vietnam protests and race rioting. Certainly racial politics and progressive, collectivist thinking had been chipping away at the bedrock of traditional American ideals. But it took a while to overtake our institutions.

While I was in grade school, I was taught to love America. People didn’t question America’s innate goodness. We were taught why millions and millions from all over the world wanted nothing more than to have a shot at life in America. The family of my paternal grandfather was like that, having escaped the Bolshevik revolution and ending up in NYC around 1920. When I was ten we went to Disneyland. In the Hall of Presidents, I saw the animatronic Abraham Lincoln deliver his historic speeches about freedom and the importance of the individual. It brought tears to my young eyes. I didn’t encounter vehement hatred for America until I went to college in Boston in 1979.

The first time I walked Harvard Square, student protesters handed me pamphlets about the evil, secretive Trilateral Commission and propaganda from MassPIRG. They were passionate about injustices that I’d never heard of before. They were all “shocked and appalled.” It was surreal and unappealing to me – I didn’t see the utility of living life in that continual state.

The drumbeat then was how the “Bedtime for Bonzo clown Reagan” was going to drive us to nuclear war and economic and environmental ruin. In my first Economics class, I was taught that the world would run out of oil by 2004. That professor also taught Keynesian models that even at age 17 I knew had been discredited. Other claims in the air at that time were that the oceans would be dead by the turn of the century and that we were going to suffer greatly from a rapidly approaching Ice Age.

Though things didn’t quite work out that way, that drumbeat hasn’t quieted. The villains have morphed, but the protest has spread from the University to secondary schools, pop culture, and most traditional institutions.

Life in today’s public schools is markedly different from 40 years ago. Just this week an Oregon boy was sent home for wearing this shirt:

patriotic tshirt

America, at least in its traditional sense, along with Christianity is being ejected from our public schools. In are multi-culturalism, identity politics, and environmental activism. Instead of an Ice Age, we are now taught to fear Anthropomorphic Global Warming. (Actually, proponents have learned not to commit to a particular temperature direction; it’s bad for business. So they’ve wisely shifted to the catch-all phrase Climate Change. Now the $22 billion per year industry has more sustainability regardless of its predictive shortcomings – climate will always change.)

Our children are taught not so much about the miraculous achievement of America’s founding as they are the injustices of European (read: white) aggression. Textbooks are scant on Franklin, Madison, and Harrison and heavy on slavery, the plight of Native Americans, and the history of women’s rights. Columbus is not portrayed so much as a brave explorer who helped spread western civilization but as a greedy, blood-thirsty conqueror who spread injustice and disease. America as founded is deemed guilty of the original sin of slavery and of ongoing rape of the planet. The sentence for these transgressions is death.

This mindset is necessary to continue to expand the State in America. The success of the American Experiment is a stiff headwind against the growth of the State. The State requires a pliant and needy population who are content to trade freedom and opportunity for the security of a safety net. (Our children are no longer taught Benjamin Franklin’s famous admonishment against this.)

The problem for Statists in America is that this has never been the American character. People who have come to America over its history were not meek and mild. They wanted to be left alone, not taken care of. Prototypical Americans want to pursue their dreams and they want to be able to profit from their labors. People like this are brave. They also understand the value of cooperation and specialization. People who value the individual above the state also have respect for others. This breeds compassion and kindness. Cooperative creative endeavors brought about unprecedented innovation and wealth, the “5000 Year Leap” that demarks the modern era. This collective experience has built reverence for free markets and entrepreneurism.

But there is a portion of our population for whom the promise of America has been historically withheld and subsequently less available – black Americans.

Despite civil rights laws and uncountable programs designed to assist blacks to overcome institutional hurdles, large disparities persist. Understandably, resentment is strong as was evidenced by the “Down with America” chants by tens of thousands in D.C. this past weekend. Those who are caught in the whirlpool of dependence rightly feel disappointed. Over the past 40+ years, they’ve been electing Democrats who have promised to deliver to them better prospects. When Obama was elected, the black community was elated, because it signified that the day of promise had finally come. But seven years later, it hasn’t.

This reality places the 2016 Democrat presidential hopefuls in an awkward position. They must embrace the policies of Obama and at the same time distance themselves. It was amusing to watch the attempt during the debate. They had to behave as though they hadn’t held power over the past seven years. Their answers are the same as ever. “There are too many guns!” “More taxes on the wealthy!” “Make Wall Street pay for college for everybody!” “The 1% are greedy!” “The Republicans are holding us back!” “It’s Bush’s fault!” “Raise the minimum wage!” “We haven’t gone far enough!” In a nutshell, they suggested that in order to solve the pressing problems or our day, we have to keep doing what we’ve been doing. Good luck with that.

It’s an old show. These are characters straight out of an Ayn Rand novel. But if you watch close enough, you can glimpse reality behind the curtain of promises and platitudes. There is a sense, on the part of most Americans, that something is really wrong. People sense that our system is not functioning properly. Most pundits miss it, but this is why Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina are polling so well. In normal times, those candidates would have had similar standings as do Webb, Chafee, and O’Malley (all poll at less than 1%.)

Americans know that our system is strained. Yes, the stock market is high. But people sense that we’re in a debt bubble that could not only burst at any time, but when it does it will dwarf the housing bubble of 2007.

Sanders and Trump both boldly and clearly descry the corruption of our electoral system – they both declare that moneyed interests rule the day. They have very different ideas about both the remedies and what a better system would look like, of course. But they both tap into the feeling of disempowerment that many Americans feel. (Sanders, though his performance was spirited and earnest, blew his remote chance of winning the Democrat Party nomination during the debate when he compromised his ethical high ground by calling for the sweeping aside of the ongoing and scandalous national security investigation involving ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.)

The Democrat candidates vilified and belittled Trump and the other Republicans. For their part, the Republicans, along with prominent conservative pundits, ridiculed the Democrat candidates. What one side accepts as axiomatic, the other discounts. This exchange is perhaps juvenile and distasteful. But it is instructive. Trump calls these hopeful leaders (along with Obama and other past and current leaders) stupid. It makes no sense to him why we would act the way we do on the world stage. His assessment reveals that he’s missing something.

He does not seem to understand the important element of what belies the policies and decisions to which he objects. He fails to perceive that American Statists, including Obama, Clinton, and Sanders along with many others, want some things to which they cannot publicly admit and remain electable. First, they want our system to collapse. They believe that they can build something better in its place. Second, they want a new order that obsoletes nationhood. They want One World government. This is not something you will hear any of them explain. They know it will not be well received. Americans still, funny enough, kind of like America.

The story of America is of course not monolithic. No human endeavor is pure. We label things, in this case America, good or bad based upon our perceptions and values. Statists dislike America as founded. It represents the exact opposite of their ideal. Through their eyes, American history has been a never-ending stream of oppression.

I took my family to NYC a few years ago. In Rockefeller Center, we grabbed a quick breakfast before the Radio City Christmas Spectacular. I asked an older gentleman if he would mind if we joined him at his table in the crowded café. He welcomed us graciously. It turned out that he was from Switzerland and a retired commercial airline pilot.  Over the course of his long career with Swissair, he had travelled extensively; to literally every country in the world. In a thick accent, he told my kids this: “Be thankful that you live in America, children. It is the greatest country in the world. It is not even close. By any measure – hospitality, kindness, generosity, fairness, choice, opportunity – America is a friend to all in need – it is the best.”

I’ll take his word for it.

The Whole Middle East Thing

I remember my first lessons on world affairs as early as the second and third grades. We had to cut articles out of the newspaper and talk about them. Dominant at that time, more than forty years ago, was strife in the Middle East – mainly between Israel and its neighboring states. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Today, foreign affairs remain centered in the cradle of civilization.middle east

Odds are that you’re disappointed in American Middle East policy. Me too. Do you ever wonder why this part of the world has been so problematic for so long? (Far longer than the years since Israel was established as a nation in the wake of WWII – Thomas Jefferson fought the Muslim Barbary Coast pirates in the early years of America’s nationhood, and Europe has been invaded repeatedly since the beginnings of Islam over a thousand years ago – the current one is far more clever than those of the past.)

There is one main problem that has plagued past, current, and judging by the discussion of the issue in the recent GOP debate, likely future administrations. The problem is that westerners cannot or will not clearly see the driving forces behind the ongoing conflicts.

Our myopia comes from at least two places: a failure to understand human nature and a lack of moral clarity. We often think of humans as rational beings. We aren’t. We are emotional beings with the capacity for reason. This distinction is important to understand the full spectrum of human behavior.

Morally, we have bought in to the concept that all religions, creeds, and cultures have equal standing. They do, in terms of an individual’s freedom to believe as he or she wishes. But they don’t, in terms of the social structure and dynamics that result from those beliefs. The failure to see this distinction makes it impossible to properly evaluate the motives of others and determine the most effective ways to resolve conflicts. In the case of the Middle East, we specifically lack understanding of the inevitable social and political consequences of the religion of Muhammad.

Much of the confusion comes from the inability to discern Islamism from Islam. Western pundits and leaders such as President Obama insist that “Islam is a religion of peace,” sometimes claiming that the word itself means peace. (It doesn’t; it more closely translates as “submission.”) The reality is that Muslims do not represent one homogeneous group, just as do neither Christians nor Jews nor Atheists, but rather hold a wide spectrum of beliefs. Some are westernized, meaning that they have found a way to follow their faith within the context of a modern society such as America that seeks to maximize individual liberty.

Others, such as those attracted to groups such as Hamas, al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Boko Haram, ISIL, and the Muslim Brotherhood, do not fall into this category. They believe that all people must live under Sharia law, which supersedes all other law. Furthermore, they hold that they are commanded by Allah to actively pursue this end. This belief is known as Islamism. It is the motive force behind jihad and dawa (Islamist missionary strategy to change nations from within.)

For some reason, our leaders believe (or want us to believe) that Islamism represents a tiny fraction of the over 1.5 billion Muslims in the world. The evidence contradicts this. Distinguishing Islamists from other Muslims is tricky, as poll results regarding beliefs vary. The best I can figure from the data is that out of the 1.5 billion Muslims in the world, maybe 200 to 500 million of them are truly Islamists. That, of course, is well sufficient to present real and present danger to all who disagree with them. Especially considering that among them are the leaders of nations such as Iran.

The inability to distinguish Islamists from other Muslims was behind the recent flap around Dr. Ben Carson’s comments on the topic. He very rationally explained that he did not believe that a Muslim who believed in the traditional tenets of the Koran would qualify to be President of the United States. He is factually correct, because the oath of office requires loyalty, first and foremost, to the U.S. Constitution. A traditional Muslim would be unable to comply. That his statement was viewed as controversial shows that our society is not currently capable of making this distinction; as a result to many it appeared as though he made a blanket “racist” statement about all Muslims. (There’s more going on underneath this, but we’ll have to save that for another time.)

To be fair, it’s a tough task to discern truth amidst the swirl of invective that comes from all sides. So how do we reasonably assess both the realities of the Islamist threat and the most effective policies to protect our people and our way of life?

Here are a few assertions that I offer for your consideration:

  1. Islamists are more numerous, and more powerful, than ever.
  2. The Islamist worldview is incompatible with the tenets of the U.S. Constitution and the American way of life.
  3. Islamists are serious about the destruction of western culture, specifically Israel and America.
  4. Islamists will continue their aggressions until they succeed or are forcefully prevented from doing so.
  5. Islamists represent a significant ongoing threat to Americans domestically.
  6. Islamists are fierce and dedicated, but far weaker than the full force of technologically advanced societies.

Maybe these appear obvious to you, or maybe they look like horse pucky. Presidential hopefuls Rand Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton seem to believe that #’s 3-5 are not true.

Many in the west simply do not believe that Islamists mean what they say. They believe that Islamists are driven by the same motivators as anyone else.  Marie Harf, spokesperson for the Obama administration State Department said: “We need in the medium and longer term to go after the root causes that lead people to join these groups, such as lack of opportunity for jobs.”

George W. Bush said that Iraqis were the same as everybody else, they want freedom. Maybe so. But their ideas of freedom differ from yours, Mr. President.

If some or all of my six assertions above are untrue, I suppose it is most reasonable to continue to withdraw from involvement in the Middle East. The geopolitical realities there are a big mess. The national boundaries currently in place in the region mean a whole lot more to governments than they do to the people who live there. The population of the region roughly divides out into three groups – Muslims, Jews, and Christians. Among these, Muslims are the vast majority. Within that group, they roughly divide into three – Sunni, Shia, and Kurd.

Many of the difficulties there are not just with Islamist intolerance of non-Muslims, but of Sunni and Shiite intolerance of one another. It is an ideological blend incompatible with domestic tranquility, and fleeting moments of peace are only upheld via the fists of strongmen such as Saddam Hussein (we saw what happens when that heavy hand is lifted.)

It is tempting to just leave the whole mess to them and let them sort it out. That may have been possible in the past. It isn’t any more. Why?

Technology.

Islamists didn’t develop or create the destructive technologies that they employ today. But they sure are willing to use them. From IED’s to beheading videos, they have learned how to conduct real and psychological warfare in the most effective ways.

We stand on the verge of the day when Islamists will possess nuclear weapons. Let me ask you this. If and when they get them, do you believe that will show the same restraint that current nuclear-armed governments have?

President Obama called ISIS (he always uses the term ISIL) the “JV squad.” That was before they had successfully established the first Caliphate in 85 years. The significance of this to the Islamist is difficult to overstate. They believe that it signals the beginning of the foretold “end times.” It represents the successful completion of step five of a seven step plan to fully establish Sharia law worldwide. Steps six and seven aren’t pretty. In fact, nuclear weapons would be quite handy to successfully complete those steps.

The nuclear deal with Iran is therefore particularly crucial. The Obama Administration is quite comfortable with arms-length inspections and trusting Iranian intentions and integrity. Are you?

Candidates such as Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and Lindsay Graham want to rearm and push the technological and therefore tactical and strategic military capabilities of the U.S. in order to play Wack-A-Mole with bad Islamic actors such as ISIS as they pop up. I’m unconvinced that this strategy will be successful.

It seems to me that the keys for solving Middle East problems lie with Middle Easterners. We need to support those Muslims who oppose Islamism. The problem? There doesn’t appear to be many of those around, at least not in power. Terrorist practices have been quite successful in intimidating all who might stand in opposition.

So here we are. We can’t ignore. We can’t invade. It’s quite a pickle. What do you believe we should do?